Licensed Operators’ Revenues in the Netherlands Drop Amid Tax Hike
Industry association VNLOK attributed a 25% drop in H1 2025 revenues to stricter regulations and higher taxes.
Reasons Behind the Revenue Decline
Tighter Regulations and Tax Increases
The gambling tax rate in the Netherlands rose from 30.5% to 34.2%, leading to a notable shift of players towards offshore platforms. VNLOK stated that these measures are undermining the competitiveness of the legal online gambling market.
Lower RTP and Reduced Bonuses
To maintain profitability amid increased tax burdens, operators have been forced to lower the RTP (Return to Player) of slot games and cut back on bonus offerings — making licensed platforms less attractive to players.
Key Stats and Projections
| Indicator | 2024 | 2025 (Forecast) |
|---|---|---|
| Licensed Operator Revenue | €1 billion | €800 million |
| Tax Revenue | €1.234 billion (target) | €960 million (actual) |
| Illegal Market Volume | ≈ €800 million | €1.2 billion |
Growth of the Shadow Market
Illegal Gambling Market Expanding Rapidly
According to VNLOK and Kansspelautoriteit (KSA), the size of the illegal market has reached parity with the legal one — around €1.2 billion. High-stakes players are increasingly turning to unregulated platforms, where they receive no protection from the state.
Impact on Consumers
The drop in tax revenue is just part of the problem. There’s also a decline in player protection, as illegal platforms operate outside of KSA oversight. This poses significant risks to users and undermines the goals of regulatory policy.
VNLOK’s Response
Call to Freeze Tax Rate
VNLOK Chairman Björn Fuchs warned that any further tax increases would only worsen the situation. He urged the government to freeze the current tax rate at 34.2% to prevent:
- further player migration to illegal sites;
- growth of the black market;
- decline in tax revenues;
- deterioration in consumer protection.
Land-Based Sector Also Feeling the Pressure
According to KPMG analysis, land-based gambling operators also suffered, with a 7% decline in the first half of 2025. This highlights the systemic challenges facing the Dutch gambling sector as a whole.
Conclusion
Both data and industry opinion suggest that the tax hike has had the opposite of its intended effect: lower revenues, a growing shadow market, and weaker consumer protections.
Sustainable regulation requires a balanced approach to maintain control and revenues without driving players away.