Trump and Musk Scandal Sparks Trends on Polymarket and Kalshi: How the “Big Beautiful Bill” Led to a Broken Alliance
The public conflict between Donald Trump and Elon Musk over the “Big Beautiful Bill” tax legislation has sparked new markets on Polymarket and Kalshi with a total volume of $283K at the time of writing.
Reason for the Conflict: The “Big Beautiful Bill”
The rift between U.S. President Donald Trump and his former ally Elon Musk began after Musk criticized the Trump administration’s key tax and budget bill.
Musk called the bill a “disgusting abomination” and blamed it for irresponsibly increasing the U.S. national debt. He wrote: “Shame on those who voted for it: you know you did the wrong thing.”
In response, Trump said he was “disappointed” by Musk’s stance, especially given the billionaire’s previous support for his policies. The president suggested Musk was acting out due to the cancellation of electric vehicle subsidies, which would affect Tesla.
Debate on Social Media
Both entrepreneurs exchanged barbed remarks throughout the day on their respective platforms, X and Truth Social:
- Musk: “Without me, Trump would’ve lost the election.”
- Trump: “He’s just gone crazy.”
Later, both expressed willingness to “settle” the dispute: Musk responded to Bill Ackman’s suggestion of reconciliation with the words: “You’re not wrong.”
New Markets on Polymarket and Kalshi
Amid the [conflict](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c5yg98rl717o){rel=”nofollow”} between Musk and Trump, interest in betting on Polymarket and Kalshi quickly surged:
| Event | Platform | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Epstein case materials to be released in 2025 | Polymarket | 15% |
| Musk to support the bill | Polymarket | 9% |
| Musk to unfollow Trump | Kalshi | 69% |
| Trump to unfollow Musk | Kalshi | 66% |
| Musk to create a new party by the end of the year | Kalshi | 23% |
Accusations and Scandals
Musk hinted that Trump may be involved in the Jeffrey Epstein case. He claimed the documents remain classified due to the possible involvement of the president. The White House dismissed this as a “misguided episode,” attributing Musk’s criticism to dissatisfaction with the bill’s content.
Financial Consequences
The financial markets reacted immediately:
- Tesla stock dropped by 14% within a few hours.
- Musk threatened to decommission the Dragon spacecraft, but later backed away from the idea.
According to the U.S. Congressional Budget Office, the bill will increase the national debt by $2.4 trillion over 10 years and strip nearly 11 million people of health insurance.
Background and Relationship Development
The alliance between Trump and Musk began in July of last year when Musk supported Trump following an assassination attempt. At that time, he also contributed $290M to support Trump’s election campaign.
After his appointment to the Agency for Government Efficiency (Doge), Musk carried out mass layoffs over 129 days and shut down several agencies, including USAID. According to Doge statements, $180B was saved — significantly below the $2T target.
Conclusion
The standoff between two of the most influential figures in the U.S. — Trump and Musk — has escalated from behind-the-scenes disagreements to an open war of words, impacting not only their reputations but also financial markets and public trends. And the betting markets are only adding fuel to the fire, turning each of their moves into an event with odds and consequences.