Polymarket Rejects US Invasion of Venezuela Recognition

The prediction market platform Polymarket did not close the US invasion of Venezuela market ($11.2M in trading volume) as a positive outcome, leaving it active, which sparked criticism from users.

Terms and Interpretation of Invasion

According to the contract, an invasion is defined as “US military operations aimed at establishing control over territory.” The platform determined that the operation to capture President Nicolás Maduro on January 3 did not meet this definition. Meanwhile, the “military confrontation” market ($87.4M) on the same operation was closed with a positive outcome.

User Reaction and Criticism

Keeping the market active triggered a wave of criticism from traders and platform analysts. Many users expressed dissatisfaction with the lack of a clear and predictable resolution for key international political events.

Reports of Insider Trading

Amid the events, reports emerged of possible insider trading on the platform. One account, created in December 2025, placed $32.5K on Maduro being removed from power just hours before the operation and earned $404K (+1242%).

Impact on Platform Trust

The incident raised questions about the transparency and reliability of Polymarket, as well as the risks associated with insider information in prediction markets. Users highlighted the need for stricter controls and rules to protect platform participants.