CVM Approves the Launch of a Prediction Market in Brazil
In Brazil, the Securities and Exchange Commission (CVM) has approved the launch of the country’s first regulated prediction market on the B3 exchange.
The regulator has authorized the rollout of the first products in the prediction market segment, which will be offered by B3.
The decision was reported by VALOR and confirms the possibility of placing bets on the outcomes of future events within the financial market framework.
Who Will Have Access to the Prediction Market
Participation in the new instruments will be limited exclusively to professional investors.
The minimum requirement is financial assets exceeding R$ 10 million, in line with CVM regulations.
When Trading Will Begin
The launch of the first derivatives in the prediction market segment is scheduled for the first quarter of 2026.
During this period, B3 plans to begin trading the new instruments.
Which Instruments Will Be Available First
The initial lineup will include binary options with a “yes” or “no” outcome.
The underlying assets will be:
- the U.S. dollar exchange rate;
- the Ibovespa stock index;
- bitcoin.
Investors will be able to make predictions, for example, on whether the dollar will fall below a certain level
or whether the Ibovespa index will exceed a specified threshold by a given date.
How Prediction Market Contracts Work
The contract mechanism is based on opposing positions taken by participants.
If one investor bets on an event occurring and another bets against it,
the total amount is paid out to the correct forecast.
A similar format is already used on B3 in certain instruments,
including options linked to decisions on the Selic interest rate.
Regulatory Status and the CVM’s Position
The CVM confirmed that the approved options were reviewed under the current regulatory framework.
The Commission stated that it monitors the development of new instruments and updates its oversight
based on innovation and market participant demand.
Previously, the CVM had already approved
the launch of products that sit at the intersection of derivatives and prediction contracts.
Existing Initiatives and New Market Participants
Despite the launch of a regulated segment on B3, Brazil already has projects operating
in the prediction market format, including Prévias and Palpitada.
The Futuriza platform is also expected to begin operations in March.
It will develop a B2C model for individual users
and a B2B segment aimed at companies and media organizations.
Regulatory Issues and Market Expectations
The key debate remains how supervisory responsibilities should be divided
between the CVM, the Central Bank, and the Ministry of Finance.
Industry representatives emphasize the importance of a clear legal status
for the launch of such instruments.
Amid growing interest in betting and forecasting in Brazil,
the prediction contracts market is viewed as a new segment
for professional investors and institutional participants.