Another Scandal with Polymarket

The prediction platform Polymarket is once again in the spotlight due to the opening of betting markets on the possible replacement of Pope Francis in 2025. The trading volume for this event has already exceeded $1.39 million. Bets on the pontiff’s health condition have sparked public outrage and raised questions about the ethics of such wagers.

Active Betting Markets on Polymarket

The Polymarket platform has opened the following markets related to the Pope:

• Who will become the new Pope: Bets on specific candidates, including Cardinals Luis Antonio Tagle, Pietro Parolin, and Robert Sarah.
• Will the pontiff be replaced in 2025: Bets on the likelihood of a new Pope being elected by the end of the year.
• Will a new Pope appear as early as July this year: Bets on the possibility of Pope Francis abdicating or passing away by July.
• From which continent will the new pontiff come: Bets on the geographical origin of the future Pope.

As of February 25, 2025, the chances of a new Pope being elected by the end of the year were estimated at 74%.

Pope Francis’ Health Condition

The 88-year-old Pope Francis was hospitalized on February 14 with a respiratory infection, later diagnosed with bilateral pneumonia and chronic bronchitis. His condition remains critical, and he underwent a blood transfusion due to anemia.

Ethical Aspects of Betting on the Pontiff’s Health

The public is concerned about the morality of betting on a person’s health, especially when it comes to the leader of the Catholic Church. Such wagers are perceived as unethical and have led to calls for stricter regulation of platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi.

Historical Context of Betting on Papal Elections

Betting on papal elections is not a new phenomenon. In the 16th century, such wagers were common until Pope Gregory XIV banned Catholics from participating in them in 1591 under the threat of excommunication, considering them a violation of sacred principles.

Previous Scandals with Polymarket

Polymarket has already been at the center of scandals. In 2024, the platform attracted attention due to bets on the U.S. presidential election when a French trader placed about $50 million on Donald Trump’s victory, raising suspicions of an attempt to manipulate public opinion.