Pope Francis’ Death Sparks Betting Frenzy: Who Will Be the Next Pontiff?
Yesterday’s news about the death of 88-year-old Pope Francis triggered a sharp surge in activity on the previously launched markets for bets on the crypto platform Polymarket.
As we reported earlier, the platform had created special markets related to the Vatican’s future during the period of the pontiff’s worsening health.
Choosing the Next Pope: Betting Favorites
The most popular market on Polymarket is the selection of the next Pope. The total amount wagered in this category has reached $3 million.
| Name | Country | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Luis Antonio Gokim Tagle | Philippines | 37% |
| Pietro Parolin | Italy | 36% |
Both candidates are respected cardinals with significant influence within the Catholic Church. Platform users are actively discussing their chances, and probabilities are updated in real time.
Continent of Origin of the New Pope
The second most popular market concerns the regional origin of the next pontiff. The distribution here is as follows:
- Asia — 57%
- Europe — 41%
This interest in an Asian candidate may be linked to the growing Catholic influence in the region and the high popularity of Filipino Cardinal Tagle.
Provocative Scenarios: Bets on Unusual Characteristics
Among the non-standard markets are more provocative options. For example, Polymarket users can bet on whether the new Pope will be:
- transgender
- gay
- Black
- a little person
A considerable amount of money has already been wagered on the combined probability of such characteristics, with the chances of a positive outcome estimated at 32%.
When Will the New Pope Be Elected?
A separate market titled “Will There Be a New Pope in 2025?” has attracted bets totaling $2.23 million.
Interestingly, on the morning of April 21, the probability of the “Yes” outcome was only 35%, but after the official confirmation of Francis’ death, it jumped to 99%.