BetterGambling: Over 800 Operators Expected to Exit the UK Market by 2027
Independent analytics platform BetterGambling published a study on how regulatory changes in 2026 will impact the UK iGaming market.
Overall Operator Reduction
The study revealed a major market transformation, leading to significant consolidation and the exit of numerous operators. Key findings include:
- 680-900 operators expected to leave the market by the end of 2027 (30-40% of 2,262 licensed operators).
- The number of new online casinos will drop by 60-70% — 30-40 versus 100-120 annually.
- 45-55% of white-label operators will close — leaving 200-300 out of 350-450.
- 40-50% of independent operators will be consolidated — leaving 500-700.
- 8,000-12,000 jobs are expected to be lost.
- The top 10 operators will control 70-75% of GGY, up from 55-60% today.
- 95-100% of large operators with GGY over $65 million are expected to remain in the market.
- 60-75% of mid-sized operators with GGY of $13-65 million will survive.
- 40-50% of small operators with GGY under $13 million will survive.
- Minimum market entry investments will rise to $3.9-6.5 million (an increase of 150-250%).
- Market size forecast for 2028: $21.5-22 billion (compared to $20.3 billion in 2024).
Compliance Costs and Regulatory Fees
The main burden for operators comes from monitoring systems, AI, and personnel:
| Expense Category | Amount ($ million) |
|---|---|
| Transaction monitoring systems | 0.26–0.65 |
| AI-based risk assessment systems | 0.39–1 |
| Specialized personnel | 0.078–0.182 annually |
| Statutory regulatory fee (0.1%-1.1% of GGY) | 20-30% of actual compliance costs |
For an operator with GGY of $3.9 million, compliance costs could exceed annual profits.
Operator Classification by Survival
Large Integrated Operators (Survival 95-100%)
Companies with GGY above $65 million and multiple brands:
- Flutter Entertainment
- Entain
- Bet365
- William Hill
- Sky Betting & Gaming
Advantages: scale, established compliance infrastructure, access to capital, brand stability.
Mid-Sized Operators (Survival 60-75%)
Operators with GGY of $13-65 million face the need for strategic decisions:
- Mergers, acquisitions, partnerships
- Optimizing compliance costs
- Focusing on niche markets
- Selective investment in key projects
Small Independent Operators (Survival 40-50%)
Operators with GGY under $13 million are at the highest risk:
- High compliance costs relative to revenue
- Limited access to specialists and technology
- Competition with large operators for clients and staff
- Need for radical strategy overhaul to survive
Forecast and Investments
Minimum investments to enter the market are expected to rise to $3.9-6.5 million, 150-250% higher than current levels. The market size is projected to reach $21.5-22 billion by 2028.