Gambling Resists Recession — How Trump’s Tariffs Affected the Sector
Online Casinos and Tariff Policy: Why the Market Didn’t Collapse
After Donald Trump’s sharp announcement about new tariffs on April 2, markets came under significant pressure. Many stocks, including those of gambling companies, lost double-digit percentages in value.
However, due to public pressure, most of the new tariffs were suspended for 90 days. Remaining in place are:
- a universal 10% tax,
- a 25% tariff on Canada and Mexico,
- a 125% tariff on Chinese imports.
Analysts note that even such measures have not significantly affected gambling. The sector has proven resilient even during financial crises.
Gambling — One of the Most Recession-Resilient Markets
Analysis of past recessions shows that gambling is less vulnerable compared to other industries:
- Online gambling in the UK dropped by only 1–2% at the height of the crisis.
- Regional casinos in the US lost just 4% of their revenue.
- Sports betting in Nevada (excluding the Las Vegas Strip) declined by only 2%.
- The share of Americans’ income spent on betting rose from 1.5% to 1.7%.
Analysts compare gambling to movie theaters — an affordable form of entertainment close to home that retains popularity even amid reduced consumer spending.
Sports Betting: Growth Even During a Crisis
Sports betting is one of the most stable segments. According to Citizens Capital:
| Indicator | Change |
|---|---|
| Number of bets in Nevada | -2% |
| Spending on betting per adult | -4% |
| Household spending on betting | 1.5% → 1.7% |
These figures are explained by the fact that betting is an affordable form of entertainment that doesn’t require large expenditures.
Potential Upside: State-Level Legalization
Economic instability could accelerate the legalization of gambling in new US states.
Historically, the highest number of legalizations has occurred during periods of recession and budget deficits.
This could support the sector even amid declining inbound tourism and rising prices for food and construction materials.
What’s Next: Cautious Optimism
Despite the temporary suspension of tariffs, fundamental risks remain:
- Consumer uncertainty may reduce spending in casinos.
- Possible declines in tourism from China, Canada, and Mexico could impact Las Vegas and Macau.
- Rising prices for construction materials and food will increase operators’ costs.
Nevertheless, even in this environment, gambling continues to demonstrate resilience. As noted by analysts from Macquarie and Regulus Partners — even if the economy dips, people don’t stop betting, and governments start seeking new revenue sources through gambling legalization.